Survival rates may be more optimistic than the usual quoted numbers
NEW YORK (The New York Times) October 11, 2002
Because survival rates are calculated based upon a "cohort" method which measures individuals whose disease was diagnosed 20 years ago and how many are alive today. That would base the 1998 statistical rate of survival on patients treated in 1978, with its screening and treatment possibilities.
The "period" method is a more sophisticated technique that multiplies the possibility of survival each year. It is currently used to compute life expectancy in populations of people.
Using the period method, a person diagnosed with cancer today would have a 51% chance of living 20 years, where under the ordinarily quoted cohort method, 20 year survival is only 40%.
Earlier detection and improved treatment have improved overall survival outlook for some cancers -- including colon and rectum -- significantly.
Dr. Hermann Brenner of the German Center for Research on Aging in Heidelberg used the National Cancer Institute's database to calculate new survival statistics.
Dr. Donald Berry, head of biostatistics at the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, warned that overall survival numbers are too general for use with individual patients.
"No clinician — well, almost no clinician," Dr. Berry said, would simply quote to a patient the overall survival numbers for a type of cancer. Any good doctor making a prognosis, he said, takes into account the size of a tumor, how far it has spread, the patient's age, success rates of new treatments and other factors.
Dr. Brenner agrees, but points out that the current statistics are available to patients in many forms. including the internet.
He also says that for colorectal cancer early detection and better treatment produce genuinely longer lives.
Read The New York Times article by Donald G. Mc Neil, Jr.
Read The Lancet article by Hermann Brenner MD.